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2 m temperature and 30 m wind

Base Time: Tue 18 Oct 2022 00 UTC T+15 Valid time: Tue 18 Oct 2022 15 UTC (T+15)

Air temperatures at 2 m above the earth's surface approximate most closely to the conditions a person would most likely experience. 2 m air temperatures are a post-processed product that is derived by non-linear interpolation between model air temperatures at the lowest model level (at about 10 m above the surface) and temperatures forecast at the model earth's surface.

Further information on the diagnosis of temperature and surface wind is available in the Forecast User Guide.

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First ECMWF ensemble forecast, 24 November 1992

First ECMWF operational ensemble forecast

Black contours show the traditional single forecast for 500 hPa height made at 12 UTC on 24 November 1992 for a lead time of 4 days. It shows a low pressure system over the central North Atlantic and a ridge over western Europe.

Before the implementation of the ensemble, there was no indication of uncertainty in the forecast. The shading shows the first estimate of uncertainty, derived from the spread of the ensemble members. Light blue shading indicates regions where we could have confidence in the single forecast; dark blue regions indicate the potential for larger errors. Grey contours show the verifying analysis.

Indeed, the single forecast was quite accurate in the light blue regions, and less accurate in the dark blue regions, particularly in the vicinity of the Low. The ensemble, and the value derived from it, has improved greatly since this first forecast.

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ECMWF Summer of Weather Code 2022

Now in its fifth year, ECMWF’s Summer of Weather Code continues to develop innovative software solutions which tackle a range of challenges in weather and climate, by bringing together external teams with ECMWF experts. Esperanza Cuartero and Julia Wagemann take us through this year’s projects.

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